Forums / Questions and Answers / Army attack chances

Army attack chances
23:17:35 Jun 29th 09 - Mr. Barny:

I remember a long time ago there was a guide posted that had the % chances for different rations of attacker power - defender power. Does anyone know them still, I lost the copy I had on a notepad.


23:22:16 Jun 29th 09 - Duke Azaruc:

Sorry for the bad formatting, but this is the copy I saved

OP    DP    OP/DP     % Success Chance
1    99    0.01    0%
2    98    0.02    0%
3    97    0.03    0%
4    96    0.04    0%
5    95    0.05    0%
6    94    0.06    0%
7    93    0.08    0%
8    92    0.09    0%
9    91    0.1    0%
10    90    0.11    0%
11    89    0.12    0%
12    88    0.14    0%
13    87    0.15    0%
14    86    0.16    0%
15    85    0.18    0%
16    84    0.19    0%
17    83    0.2    0%
18    82    0.22    0%
19    81    0.23    0%
20    80    0.25    0%
21    79    0.27    0%
22    78    0.28    0%
23    77    0.3    0%
24    76    0.32    0%
25    75    0.33    0%
26    74    0.35    1%
27    73    0.37    1%
28    72    0.39    1%
29    71    0.41    1%
30    70    0.43    1%
31    69    0.45    2%
32    68    0.47    2%
33    67    0.49    3%
34    66    0.52    4%
35    65    0.54    4%
36    64    0.56    5%
37    63    0.59    7%
38    62    0.61    8%
39    61    0.64    10%
40    60    0.67    12%
41    59    0.69    14%
42    58    0.72    17%
43    57    0.75    20%
44    56    0.79    23%
45    55    0.82    27%
46    54    0.85    31%
47    53    0.89    35%
48    52    0.92    40%
49    51    0.96    45%
50    50    1    50%
51    49    1.04    55%
52    48    1.08    60%
53    47    1.13    65%
54    46    1.17    69%
55    45    1.22    73%
56    44    1.27    77%
57    43    1.33    80%
58    42    1.38    83%
59    41    1.44    86%
60    40    1.5    88%
61    39    1.56    90%
62    38    1.63    92%
63    37    1.7    93%
64    36    1.78    95%
65    35    1.86    96%
66    34    1.94    96%
67    33    2.03    97%
68    32    2.13    98%
69    31    2.23    98%
70    30    2.33    99%
71    29    2.45    99%
72    28    2.57    99%
73    27    2.7    99%
74    26    2.85    99%
75    25    3    100%
76    24    3.17    100%
77    23    3.35    100%
78    22    3.55    100%
79    21    3.76    100%
80    20    4    100%
81    19    4.26    100%
82    18    4.56    100%
83    17    4.88    100%
84    16    5.25    100%
85    15    5.67    100%
86    14    6.14    100%
87    13    6.69    100%
88    12    7.33    100%
89    11    8.09    100%
90    10    9    100%
91    9    10.11    100%
92    8    11.5    100%
93    7    13.29    100%
94    6    15.67    100%
95    5    19    100%
96    4    24    100%
97    3    32.33    100%
98    2    49    100%
99    1    99    100%


00:31:39 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Barny:

Thanks Azaruc, It looks just like my old copy and I appreciate you responding quickly and answering my question.


01:30:40 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Pesterd:

I remember that in the RVL forums :)


01:49:07 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Sloth:

thats the wrong one Azarac, that was a proposed one that never happened.


01:50:58 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Water:

its the right one ? the new


01:54:17 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Sloth:

sorry, that is right, i had confused it with another one. there was an even more drastic formula on the table a while back and for a second it looked like it.

50% more gives 88%, 3 times as much for 100%


02:57:38 Jun 30th 09 - Lady Jasmina:

Its threads like these that remind me just got nub I am at this game :)
I have no idea what you guys are talking about :|
Is this really important? Would someone explain to me a bit about this?


03:04:56 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Water:

you need to be 3 times stronger to have 100% (75OP    25 DP   3x   = 100%)
2x gives you only 97% (67OP    33DP    2.03x  =  97%)


03:07:35 Jun 30th 09 - Lady Jasmina:

but you can not know military science so basically this is all just guessing?

(i mean in a battle when you engage the enemy)


03:09:41 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Water:

not guessing its how zeta made... wtf cant explain need other guy to do it...
SLOTH explain her it ....


03:11:16 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Water:

its as it is with military ... if you have 100% on army then it means you are 3x stronger then he is... the op/dp doesnt matter. you just see % and can look up how much stronger you are... always count raw op/dp without military sci, you will get it closer or wtf lol. meh nvm 4 am ;(


03:36:13 Jun 30th 09 - Lady Jasmina:

I understand that, but I am saying you can not know for sure what percentage you will have before the enemy comes to you due to military science :) But I understand what you mean, though I dont see the use of this in the game, it just shows how the game was made, does not help in the battle :D


03:39:48 Jun 30th 09 - Chancellor Ademo:

Not for sure no, but you can have a rough estimate of your chances beforehand.. I usually apply an 'average' of what the minimum mili science for that race -should- be, if they have less, it's a nice bonus.


03:42:00 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Water:

count withouth mili thats it... yours and his army


03:42:47 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Barny:

Well one example of when it helps would be if your enemy was camping on your, say; armory city preparing to attack it. You have troops incoming every single tick due to training, and you currently have a 50% victory chance with 1000 Knights and 200 Knights are being trained per tick. Both you and your enemy have level 5 military science; and you know this through the description of enemy weaponry on the attack screen. If you knew this formula, you would know that if you waited 5 ticks to attack the preparing army your success chance would be above 95% and if you waited a total of 10 ticks then you would have a 100% success chance, causing total annihilation of an enemy with 82500 OP+DP/2.


06:32:26 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Magneto:

Don't think that one needs to have 3X more OP then the opponent's DP for slaughter.... I have slaughtered armies before with roughly slightly less than 2.5X OP...


06:40:26 Jun 30th 09 - Lady Karma:

Are you sure it wasn't 3x b/c the enemy had lower morale or military score?  His base DP might be over 1/3rd of your OP, but not in the final OP/DP...

Also on a side note, "OP+DP/2."...I think you mean in the field the opponents defense is the average of the OP & DP of his units?  I think Zeta said in another thread earlier this era that was no longer in effect (I think 30k Troll mages were killed by a 10 OP army)...

http://visual-utopia.com/forum.asp?f=Bugs%20and%20Errors&t=Troll+mages&replies=12


06:52:17 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Barny:

No, my point is still valid. People don't realize that maybe 2 or 3 eras ago (went slightly inactive) battle dynamics had changed, and I measure (OP + DP) / 2 as a general way to measure army strength on the field.

When attacking in army vs army, if you have an army of lets say Elven Archers, then you will inflict less casualties due to low Offense but loose very few troops on a victory do to high defense. On the thread that was linked by Karma, I thought that that was a pretty hilarious example so thank you for linking it. Troll mages (0/1) would be an example of an army that would be slaughtered by anything on the field when alone (They would always have 0 defense) and Halfling farmer would never cause high casuaties alone (0 offense). Still though, haveing proportionally high offense and defense compared to a defender is a good thing; and the ratios are still somewhat valid for giving you a good idea of what you're up against.


07:48:39 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Magneto:

Actually Falcon, his base DP and final DP was slightly lower than 2.5 of my base and finap OP.

Two old retired VU friends of mine used to do spreadsheets on attacks and have always insisted that for a slaughter, one does not need full 3X to slaughter an army. I also have very vivid recollections of my past experiences.

Imagine an army with 30K nazguls. Assuming ceteris paribus, would it require an army of 90K nazguls to just slaughter it? I remember slaughtering one with only 75K nazguls....


08:18:22 Jun 30th 09 - Mr. Barny:

75,000 / 30,000 = 2.5

71    29    2.45    99%
72    28    2.57    99%

So 2.5 would be in the upper 99%'s, thus 75k Nazgul would be able to do well against 30k.


09:39:31 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Justanius Fontainius XXI:

well all of this is good stuff....but someone explain how to use it? otherwise its useless lol


09:51:01 Jun 30th 09 - Sir Gilth:

http://visual-utopia.com/forum.asp?forum=107&topicID=23255&page=1

^^
link to the attack table posted by Zeta


09:08:48 Jul 2nd 09 - Mr. Sloth:

explaination: this table is for win/loss only. the injury/death table is not published.


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